tulip poplar windfall and phenology '26

Spring seems to be arriving a bit early this year—at least in my Atlanta backyard. My records show the first tulip poplar flower windfall appeared on day 84, about 13 days earlier than expected. It’s a small but telling sign that the season is shifting ahead of schedule.

To put this in perspective, I compared my observations with broader indicators like the National Phenology Network’s Spring Bloom Index. This model, based on flowering plants like lilacs and honeysuckles and seasonal temperature patterns, shows that the 2026 spring in Georgia’s Piedmont region is running a few days early compared to the 30-year average.

In other words, what I’m seeing locally matches the bigger picture—spring is getting a head start.

Other Atlanta nectar sources at this time (not shown):

• Chinese Wysteria (invasive)
  
• White Clover
• Spiderwort
• Amur Honeysuckle (invasive)
• Dandelion 

 

1st Tulip Poplar Windfall	Day of Year
10-Apr-2011	100
27-Mar-2012	87
19-Apr-2013	109
12-Apr-2015	102
15-Apr-2017	105
5-Apr-2018	95
11-Apr-2019	101
7-Apr-2021	97
6-Apr-2022	96
24-Mar-2023	83
6-Apr-2024	97
3-Apr-2025	93
25-Mar-2026	84
median	97

tulip poplar windfall, other spring flowers and phenology '25

 

Based on my Atlanta backyard observations and record keeping, I found this year's first Tulip Popular flower windfall a few days early (day 93) - see my table below.  I compared my first tulip poplar windfall observations with other spring surrogates.  The National Phenology Network leaf out model is another way to determine if spring is early, on time, or late.

Spring Leaf Index Anomaly Map uses the first leaf out of cloned lilac and honeysuckle cultivars as these woody plants are among the first to leaf out or bloom and are common across much of the country.  The model also uses temperature and weather events beginning January 1 of each year.  The current spring is compared with a 1991-2020 average. The map shows that the 2025 Georgia Piedmont region's first leaf out day of the year is a few days early compared to the 30-year average.

Other Atlanta nectar sources at this time (not shown):

• Chinese Wysteria (invasive)
  
• White Clover
• Spiderwort
• Amur Honeysuckle (invasive)
• Dandelion

1st Tulip Poplar Windfall	Day of Year
10-Apr-2011	100
27-Mar-2012	87
19-Apr-2013	109
12-Apr-2015	102
15-Apr-2017	105
5-Apr-2018	95
11-Apr-2019	101
7-Apr-2021	97
6-Apr-2022	96
24-Mar-2023	83
6-Apr-2024	97
3-Apr-2025	93
median	97

tulip poplar windfall, other spring flowers and phenology '24

Click on the image and notice that ants have discovered the tulip poplar flower. These ants are not thought of as pollinators just clever at finding sweets.

Based on my Atlanta backyard observations and record keeping, I found this year's first Tulip Popular flower windfall right on time (day 97) - see my table below.  I'm curious how my first tulip poplar windfall observations correlate with other spring surrogates?  The National Phenology Network leaf out model is another way to determine if spring is early, on time, or late.

Spring Leaf Index Anomaly Map uses the first leaf out of cloned lilac and honeysuckle cultivars as these woody plants are among the first to leaf out or bloom and are common across much of the country.  The model also uses temperature and weather events beginning January 1 of each year.  The current spring is compared with a 1991-2020 average. The map shows that the 2024 Georgia Piedmont region's first leaf out day of the year is similar to the 30-year average - spring is on time in the Georgia Piedmont region and surrounding regions show that spring is a few days early.

Other Atlanta nectar sources at this time (not shown):

• Chinese Wysteria (invasive)
  
• White Clover
• Spiderwort
• Amur Honeysuckle (invasive)
• Dandelion
  

1st Windfall	day of year
April 10, 2011	100
March 27, 2012	87
April 19, 2013	109
April 12, 2015	102
April 15, 2017	105
April 5, 2018	95
April 11, 2019	101
April 7, 2021	97
April 6, 2022	96
March 24, 2023	83
April 6, 2024	97
median	97

Made with HTML Tables

tulip poplar windfall and other spring flowers '23

NOAA headlines

• February 2023 was Earth’s 4th warmest on record
• Europe saw its second-warmest winter as global sea ice set a new record low

I found this year's first Tulip Popular flower windfall 16 days earlier than expected.  This early arrival was most likely driven by weather/climate.  My observation biases that might undermine the hypothesis:

• I'm better at spotting windfall flowers
• more time spent outdoors and less time commuting to work
  

Other nectar sources at this time (not shown):

• Chinese Wysteria (invasive)
  
• White Clover
• Spiderwort
• Amur Honeysuckle (invasive)
• Dandelion

1st Windfall	day of year
April 10, 2011	100
March 27, 2012	87
April 19, 2013	109
April 12, 2015	102
April 15, 2017	105
April 5, 2018	95
April 11, 2019	101
April 7, 2021	97
April 6, 2022	96
March 24, 2023	83
median	99

tulip poplar windfall and other spring flowers '22

 

1st Windfall	day of year
April 10, 2011	100
March 27, 2012	87
April 19, 2013	109
April 12, 2015	102
April 15, 2017	105
April 5, 2018	95
April 11, 2019	101
April 7, 2021	97
April 6, 2022	96
median	100

I found this year's first Tulip Popular flower windfall on April 6, 2022 (96th day of the year) and in a few days afterward the ground was covered with Tulip Popular flowers and bees returned with cream colored pollen.   April 6 is just a few days earlier than expected.  However March 27, 2012 is the big outlier, nearly 2 weeks earlier than expected.

Other nectar sources at this time (not shown):

• Chinese Wysteria (invasive)
  
• White Clover
• Spiderwort
• Amur Honeysuckle (invasive)