Winter Outlook (December through February)

NOAA's winter outlook for Atlanta reads as "Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation."  

November seemed very warm and this was confirmed using Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network.  An average Atlanta November temperature of 58.6°F has not been seen since 2003.  

Nov-1    To    Nov-30          Max[°F], Min[°F], Avg[°F]
2011                 2011               70.4       46.7        58.6
2010                 2010               63.5       45.3        54.4
2009                 2009               64.2       45.2        54.7
2008                 2008               59.8       41.0        50.4
2007                 2007               63.6       43.4        53.5
2006                 2006               62.9       44.2        53.5
2005                 2005               65.0       46.1        55.5
2004                 2004               64.1       48.7        56.4
2003                 2003               68.1       47.9        58.0
2002                 2002               59.6       41.6        50.6
2001                 2001               70.3       51.4        60.9
2000                 2000               59.1       44.1        51.6

The Arctic Oscillation has been in a positive phase and forecast to remain so for the next few weeks.  I speculate that odds are now tilted towards above normal December through February temperatures. 

Last Saturday, I added the Bee Cozy, but last year, the bee Cozy was added on the 4th of November.   I like to believe that the prolonged cold during Snowpocalypse reduced the number of small hive beetles this summer, but with a potentially warmer winter, I'm happy that I painted the Beetle Jail for use in summer of 2012. 

arctic oscillation versus La Niña pattern

December 2010 and January 2011 were breathtakingly cold and attributed to a large amplitude negative phase of the arctic oscillation according to the state climatologist David Emory Stooksbury. As the arctic oscillation phase is now positive, perhaps a more typical La Niña pattern (warmer and dryer) will predominate for Atlanta.

Or perhaps NOT....you can start laughing now.....to date, mid-March 2011, rainfall nearly equals the March average. The soil is completely saturated with the latest 1.4" of rain. So, I will cross-out dryer. Will the March 2011 temperature be warmer than average?.....you can start laughing again.

My plan is to keep the bee cozy on till consistently warm (50 °F) dawn temperatures arrive. The bee cozy may be a bee hive management inconvenience, but the bee cozy does not harm the bees. In the photo, imagine a chilly 44 °F morning with several drone pupa dragged onto the landing board.

La Niña pattern

Cold surface water in the equatorial pacific may result in a warmer and dryer Atlanta winter. See the links to the official forecast: 

• David Emory Stooksbury "It is too early to tell exactly how the La Niña pattern will impact Georgia" 
• NOAA Wet Season 2010/2011 Outlook
• NOAA Upper SE La Niña precipitation probabilities October-December
• NOAA Upper SE La Niña precipitation probabilities January-March

The harsh winter encouraged me to purchase Bee Cozy hive wraps.  The hive wraps have just arrived.  Regardless of whether a mild winter materializes, my high shade apiary will probably benefit from the hive wraps.