Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Winter Outlook (December through February)

NOAA's winter outlook for Atlanta reads as "Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation."  

November seemed very warm and this was confirmed using Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network.  An average Atlanta November temperature of 58.6°F has not been seen since 2003.  

Nov-1    To    Nov-30          Max[°F], Min[°F], Avg[°F]
2011                 2011               70.4       46.7        58.6
2010                 2010               63.5       45.3        54.4
2009                 2009               64.2       45.2        54.7
2008                 2008               59.8       41.0        50.4
2007                 2007               63.6       43.4        53.5
2006                 2006               62.9       44.2        53.5
2005                 2005               65.0       46.1        55.5
2004                 2004               64.1       48.7        56.4
2003                 2003               68.1       47.9        58.0
2002                 2002               59.6       41.6        50.6
2001                 2001               70.3       51.4        60.9
2000                 2000               59.1       44.1        51.6

The Arctic Oscillation has been in a positive phase and forecast to remain so for the next few weeks.  I speculate that odds are now tilted towards above normal December through February temperatures. 

Last Saturday, I added the Bee Cozy, but last year, the bee Cozy was added on the 4th of November.   I like to believe that the prolonged cold during Snowpocalypse reduced the number of small hive beetles this summer, but with a potentially warmer winter, I'm happy that I painted the Beetle Jail for use in summer of 2012. 

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