Friday, January 8, 2010

revised 2010 Atlanta rainfall forecast

It was not my intention to so quickly revise my simplistic rainfall forecast, but nine inches of rain in December 2009 (red curve) has changed everything.  Including the December 2009 rainfall, now the best historical rainfall match is 2002 (next year as blue curve) followed by 1983 (next year as green curve) and then 1942 (next year as black curve) .    What is surprising is that all rainfall forecasts are similar and suggest more rain than "average" during Feb-Apr 2010.   In other words, 2010 has the same 2009 trend of too much Feb-Apr rainfall. To avoid clutter, the 2002 rainfall match is not shown.  As previously mentioned, no two rainfall years are the same and this annual rainfall match is no exception. You might want to visit the "official" 2009 climate summary.

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